Run any question through structured adversarial analysis. Get a probability estimate you can actually trust.
Get StartedTwo days before the Academy Awards, we ran a prediction: Would Timothée Chalamet lose Best Actor?
He did lose.
Both systems called it, Perspectives was closer.
Read the full analysis →A structured breakdown of the question: Where the Consensus Sits; Where it Fractures; the assumptions most likely to be wrong and the scenarios most likely to be underweighted. Every claim traced back to the argument that supports it.
9 pages · PDF
The same analysis as a conversation. Analysts make their cases, challenge each other's reasoning, update their positions, and vote. Listen to the debate instead of reading it.
Some questions have more than two outcomes.
Enter "Who will win March Madness?" and Perspectives identifies the candidates automatically. Each analyst distributes their probability budget across the full field. You see where they agree, where they diverge, and which underdogs might be underpriced.
Works for any multi-outcome market. Tournament brackets. Award categories. Leadership races. Anywhere the field is larger than two.
Will the incumbent survive the primary? Which cabinet appointment clears confirmation? How does the election result change if the candidate drops out before the debate?
Will the merger clear antitrust review? Does the CEO survive the board vote? What happens to the stock if the FDA rejects the application?
Who takes home Best Picture? Which team wins the championship? Will the show get renewed for another season?
Does the ceasefire hold? Will sanctions be lifted before the deadline? What's the probability of military action in the next 90 days?
Not every question has a verifiable outcome. For decisions without a resolution date, Analysis Mode runs the same process and produces a ranked recommendation instead of a probability.
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